Just kidding. No one who does not own and know how to operate a crystal ball really knows if The Calgary Real Estate Market is on the verge of boom or not, but this blog is filled with some facts that certainly point strongly in that direction!
So, once again I found myself cruising Don Campbell's blog, and what do I find, but the most enticing headline called, "This Past Weekend Changed My Thinking About Alberta Real Estate." So what Calgary Real Estate Agent is going to see a title like that and not read the blog through? So of course I dove right in, read it through, and immediately sent a link to my investor clients!
I printed off this article and read it in my beat-up lazy boy that Clint hates and wishes he could light on fire.
And here is the chair:
I realize that the chair has nothing to do with this article. I just really like my chair.
Campbell begins by highlighting that Albertans really missed the boat in the 1990s and again in the 2000s when they thought it was too late to get into the Alberta Real Estate Market being that the downturn had just occurred. However, the market took off and those who were brave enough to invest amid the warnings of the nay-sayers, did very well.
He also points out that it was the out-of-province investors who spotted that the province was on the upswing, invested, and ultimately did better than a large majority of Albertans who missed the pot of gold in their own backyard! I personally would assert that many Albertans didn't invest because they had their judgment clouded by the negative up and down drone that comprises the Alberta news media. Out-of-towners, however, were immune to the fear-mongering of their evening newsman.
So here I am in my comfy chair and I begin to read this article, and the very first thing that I highlight on the page (because I always read with a highlighter just a habit) is this sentence:
"As of this weekend I have not seen the Alberta economic fundamentals pointing to this strong of long term momentum in all the years I have been studying them. And this factors into the turmoil that is occurring around the world, the strong Canadian dollar, the huge debt being created in the US, and the potential for a longer term world economic doldrum."
Now if I was to hear this from a regular Real Estate blogger, or even an economist, I would likely just flip past it and consider it nothing more than an opinion, but this is from Don Campbell whoâ€”as I have said many times before---is the authority on Canadian Real Estate Investment!
What I love about Don (do you think I can start calling him Don?), is that he doesn't just chuck out wild comments and then not back them up with well-researched evidence. He begins his journey of charts, graphs and numbers with one simple statement about the Real Estate market that may just blow your mind:
"Real Estate Market Numbers are Exactly The Wrong Places To Look When You Want To Predict What's Going To Happen."
"Here's what you need to predict the real estate market future," Campbell says, "The momentum graph, which shows exactly the progression of an economy and how it eventually impacts the Real Estate Market."
Campbell goes right into posing the most important question of his blog (and now my blog too): "So where are we on this chart for Alberta?
Alberta Economy Set for Solid Growth in 2011: RBC Reports 4.3% hike in GDP forecast for this year >> article here. Plus the Conference Board of Canada states Alberta will lead country in growth in 2011.
As well, as you can see on the graph below, Calgary and Edmonton are forecasted to lead the country in GDP growth for major cities for the next 3 years."
What is this I see? Calgary leading the way for GDP growth, with Edmonton following at a close second? What's surprising about this graph is that Calgary is really at the top of the stack. What is less surprising is that Edmonton is a close second, because Edmonton usually finds itself second to Calgary in almost all situations where excelling is being measured. (Insert audience laughter here.)
Now if we continue to climb up Campbell's arrow formula, we come to the next stop which is job growth. Campbell asserts, "Alberta leads the country in employment gains in February. Close to 14,000 jobs created in February. To read the full article >> click here."
Campbell notes that even more important to our discussion is not just the job growth but also "the projected number of construction jobs being created over the next 8 years." Having given a handy-dandy little graph on his blog, I have also posted it below.
"You can see where we are today â€“ compare that to 3 years in the future and you start to see what I am talking about.
We all remember how things were going in Alberta for the years 2006- 2008. Check out the future forecast for 2012- 2019 and you can see it easily surpasses that period," Campbell opines.
So if we're putting together the pieces of the puzzle that Campbell is putting down, we can see that he is saying that there is the beginnings of some real momentum in the Calgary Real Estate Market. I believe he is saying that there is the potential here for some really great investments to be made!
Stop listening to what you hear on the radio or evening news. It always changes anyways from day-to-day. Look at the facts on the ground, and for the love of Pete, would you please pick up Real Estate Investing in Canada by Don R. Campbell, and don't even think about surfing the Calgary MLS until you have read every single page.
Until Next Time,
The Vanderveen Team
Maxwell South Star Realty
Phone: 403.253.5678 Fax: 403.592.6736